Cal Poly
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
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RankNameGradeRating
187  Peyton Bilo FR 20:17
220  Molly Haar JR 20:24
327  Ashley Windsor SR 20:38
528  Sydney Szabo SO 20:57
533  Katie Izzo FR 20:57
653  Erika Veidis SR 21:08
669  Sara Van Dyke SR 21:10
684  Mary Jo Wright SR 21:11
969  Meghan Breadmore SR 21:32
1,007  Hannah Hull FR 21:35
1,288  Mary Hillis JR 21:55
1,496  Rachel Bush JR 22:09
National Rank #55 of 339
West Region Rank #9 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 3.6%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.2%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 11.4%
Top 10 in Regional 79.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Peyton Bilo Molly Haar Ashley Windsor Sydney Szabo Katie Izzo Erika Veidis Sara Van Dyke Mary Jo Wright Meghan Breadmore Hannah Hull Mary Hillis
Stanford Invitational 09/26 809 20:17 20:33 20:37 20:35 21:05 21:32 20:49 21:04 21:48
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 782 20:09 20:18 20:23 21:05 20:55 21:11 21:59
Cal Poly Invitational 10/17 1229 21:04 21:44
Big West Championships 10/31 1025 20:36 21:00 21:18 20:59 21:15 20:58 21:06 21:36 22:11
West Region Championships 11/13 926 20:02 20:44 20:50 21:26 21:14 21:57
NCAA Championship 11/21 20:34





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 3.6% 26.5 642 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.2
Region Championship 100% 8.5 280 0.0 0.6 10.8 13.6 14.7 14.1 14.1 11.2 8.2 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Peyton Bilo 11.3% 112.8 0.0
Molly Haar 6.4% 125.5
Ashley Windsor 3.8% 168.2
Sydney Szabo 3.6% 208.0
Katie Izzo 3.6% 211.0
Erika Veidis 3.6% 225.7
Sara Van Dyke 3.6% 230.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Peyton Bilo 32.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.5
Molly Haar 38.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.7
Ashley Windsor 55.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
Sydney Szabo 78.3 0.0 0.0
Katie Izzo 78.1 0.0 0.0
Erika Veidis 91.9
Sara Van Dyke 95.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 3
4 0.6% 93.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4
5 10.8% 19.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 8.8 2.1 5
6 13.6% 5.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 12.9 0.7 6
7 14.7% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.5 0.2 7
8 14.1% 14.1 8
9 14.1% 14.1 9
10 11.2% 11.2 10
11 8.2% 8.2 11
12 5.4% 5.4 12
13 3.5% 3.5 13
14 2.1% 2.1 14
15 1.0% 1.0 15
16 0.6% 0.6 16
17 0.1% 0.1 17
18 0.0% 0.0 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 3.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 96.4 0.0 3.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Kansas 26.0% 1.0 0.3
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 8.8% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Florida 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 1.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0